Literature

Several reports on the prediction of sexual offense recidivism have been authored by R. Karl Hanson, Ph.D. (developer of STATIC-99 and RRASOR) and his colleagues (see also Solicitor General of Canada website for most reports).  E.g., 

TITLE	PUBLISHED IN/BY	ABSTRACTS
A Review of the Recidivism Rates of Adult Female Sexual Offenders	Department of the Solicitor General of Canada 2005	Cortoni & Hanson. "The purpose of this review was to provide information on the prevalence of female sexual offending, and to establish an understanding of the reoffending rates of these women. To achieve this purpose, a systematic review of available information on female sexual offenders was conducted. There were two goals to this study: 1) to provide an estimate of the proportion of sexual offenders who are women; and 2) to establish the known sexual recidivism rates among female sexual offenders. . .  A weighted average across studies resulted in an observed sexual recidivism rate for female sexual offenders of 1.0% (3/306). The rate of any violent recidivism (including sexual) was 6.3% (15/191) and the rate of recidivism (including violent and sexual) was 20.2% (68/337). The average follow-up period was 5 years."
The Validity of Static-99 with Older Sexual Offenders	Department of the Solicitor General of Canada 2005	"Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) is the most commonly used actuarial risk tool for estimating sexual offender recidivism risk. Recent research has suggested that its methods of accounting for the offenders’ ages may be insufficient to capture declines in recidivism risk associated with advanced age. Using data from 8 samples (combined size of 3,425 sexual offenders), the present study found that older offenders had lower Static-99 scores than younger offenders and that Static-99 was moderately accurate in estimating relative recidivism risk in all age groups. Older offenders, however, displayed lower sexual recidivism rates than would be expected based on their Static-99 risk categories. Consequently, evaluators using Static-99 should consider advanced age in their overall estimate of risk."
Sex Offender Recidivism: A Simple Question	Department of the Solicitor General of Canada 2004	"This study examines sexual recidivism, as expressed by new charges or convictions for sexual offences, using the data from 10 follow-up studies of adult male sexual offenders (combined sample of 4,724). Results indicated that most sexual offenders do not re-offend sexually, that first-time sexual offenders are significantly less likely to sexually re-offend than those with previous sexual convictions, and that offenders over the age of 50 are less likely to re-offend than younger offenders. In addition, it was found that the longer offenders remained offence-free in the community the less likely they are to re-offend sexually. Data shows that rapists, incest offenders, "girl-victim" child molesters, and "boy-victim" child molesters recidivate at significantly different rates. These results challenge some commonly held beliefs about sexual recidivism and have implications for policies designed to manage the risk posed by convicted sexual offenders."
Predictors of Sexual Recidivism: An Updated Meta-Analysis	Department of the Solicitor General of Canada 2004	"This quantitative review examined the research evidence concerning recidivism risk factors for sexual offenders. A total of 95 different studies were examined, involving more than 31,000 sexual offenders and close to 2000 recidivism predictions. The results confirmed deviant sexual interests and antisocial orientation as important predictors of sexual recidivism. Antisocial orientation (e.g., unstable lifestyle, history of rule violation) was a particularly important predictor of violent non-sexual recidivism and general recidivism. The study also identified a number of new predictor variables, some of which have the potential of being useful targets for intervention (e.g., sexual preoccupations, conflicts in intimate relationships, emotional identification with children, hostility). Actuarial risk instruments were consistently more accurate than unguided clinical opinion in predicting sexual, violent nonsexual and general recidivism. For the prediction of sexual recidivism, there were no significant differences in the predictive accuracy of the various actuarial measures (e.g., SORAG, Static -99). Actuarial measures designed to predict general (any) criminal recidivism were strong predictors of general recidivism among sexual offenders."
Sex Offender Recidivism Risk: What We Know & What We Need to Know	Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 989: 154-166 2003
STATIC-2002	Department of the Solicitor General of Canada 2003	"This paper describes the development of a new risk scale for sexual offenders, Static-2002. Like Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999, 2000), Static-2002 is intended to be a widely applicable risk scale for the prediction of sexual recidivism, which can be coded using commonly available file information. Preliminary analyses (n = 2,169; k = 7) suggest that Static-2002 shows promise, but further research is needed before it can be used in applied contexts. This description of Static-2002 is presented with the hope that researchers can examine its utility and predictive accuracy in new samples."
Coding Rules for STATIC-99 - Revised	Department of the Solicitor General of Canada 2003
Recidivism and Age	Journal of Interpersonal Violence, Vol. 17, No. 10, pp. 1046-1062 2002
Age and Sexual Recidivism: A Comparison of Rapists and Child Molesters	Department of the Solicitor General of Canada 2001	"This study examined the relationship of age to sexual recidivism using data from 10 follow-up studies of adult male sexual offenders (combined sample of 4,673). Rapists were younger than child molesters and the recidivism risk of rapists steadily decreased with age. In contrast, extrafamilial child molesters showed relatively little reduction in recidivism risk until after the age of 50. The recidivism rate of intrafamilial child molesters was generally low (less than 10%), except for the intrafamilial offenders in the 18 to 24 year old age group, whose recidivism risk was comparable to that of rapists and extrafamilial child molesters. The results are discussed in terms of developmental changes in sexual drive, self-control, and opportunities to offend."
A structured approach to evaluating change among sexual offenders	Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 13(2), 105-122 2001
Risk Assessment	ATSA Informational Package 2000
Coding Rules for STATIC-99	Department of the Solicitor General of Canada 2000	REVISED, see above
Will They Do It Again?  Predicting Sex-Offense Recidivism	Current Directions in Psychological Science. (Vol. 9, No. 3) 2000
Where should we intervene? Dynamic predictors of sex offense recidivism	Criminal Justice and Behavior, 27, 6-35 2000
Improving Risk Assessments for Sex Offenders: A Comparison of Three Actuarial Scales	Law and Human Behavior, 24(1), 119-136 2000
The Sex Offender Need Assessment Rating (SONAR): A Method for Measuring Change in Risk Levels	Department of the Solicitor General of Canada 2000	"Presently, there are no established scales that could be used to evaluate change in risk among sexual offenders. The Sex Offender Need Assessment Rating (SONAR) was developed to fill this gap. The SONAR includes five relatively stable factors (intimacy deficits, negative social influences, attitudes tolerant of sex offending, sexual self-regulation, general self-regulation) and four acute factors (substance abuse, nePresently, there are no established scales that could be used to evaluate change in risk among sexual offenders. The Sex Offender Need Assessment Rating (SONAR) was developed to fill this gap. The SONAR includes five relatively stable factors (intimacy deficits, negative social influences, attitudes tolerant of sex offending, sexual self-regulation, general self-regulation) and four acute factors (substance abuse, negative mood, anger, victim access). The psychometric properties of the scale were examined using data previously collected by Hanson and Harris (1998, in press). Overall, the scale showed adequate internal consistency and moderate ability to differentiate between recidivists and non-recidivists (r = .43; ROC area of .74). SONAR continued to distinguish between the groups after controlling for well-established risk indicators, such as age, IQ, and scores on the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999) and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG; Quinsey et al. 1998). gative mood, anger, victim access). The psychometric properties of the scale were examined using data previously collected by Hanson and Harris (1998, in press). Overall, the scale showed adequate internal consistency and moderate ability to differentiate between recidivists and non-recidivists (r = .43; ROC area of .74). SONAR continued to distinguish between the groups after controlling for well-established risk indicators, such as age, IQ, and scores on the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999) and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG; Quinsey et al. 1998)."
STATIC 99: Improving Actuarial Risk Assessments for Sex Offenders	Department of the Solicitor General of Canada 1999	"The study compared the predictive accuracy of three sex offender risk assessment measures: the RRASOR (Hanson, 1997), Thornton's SACJ-Min (Grubin, 1998), and a new scale, Static-99, created by combining the items from the RRASOR and SACJ-Min. Predictive accuracy was tested using four diverse data sets drawn from Canada and the UK (total n = 1,301). The RRASOR and the SACJ-Min showed roughly equivalent predictive accuracy and the combination of the two scales was more accurate than either original scale. Static-99 showed moderate predictive accuracy for both sexual recidivism (r = .33, ROC area = .71) and violent (including sexual) recidivism (r = .32, ROC area = .69). The variation in the predictive accuracy of Static-99 across the four samples was no more than would be expected by chance."
Dynamic Predictors Of Sexual Recidivism	Department of the Solicitor General of Canada 1998	"Although the importance of dynamic factors for predicting general criminal recidivism is firmly established, it is not clear that same factors necessarily predict sexual recidivism. Sexual offending appears to be a distinct type of crime with its own set of risk factors (Hanson, Scott & Steffy, 1995; Hanson & Bussière, 1998). Because the dynamic predictors of general (primarily non-sexual) recidivism have been addressed elsewhere (Andrews & Bonta, 1994, 1995; Bonta, 1996; Gendreau et al., 1996; Quinsey, Coleman, Jones, & Altrows, 1997; Zamble & Quinsey, 1997), the present study focused only on the predictors of sexual offense recidivism."
Predicting relapse: A meta- analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies	Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 66, 348-362 1998	Meta-analysis of studies shows about 13.4% overall recidivism rate for sex offenders over 5 years (18.9% for violent reoffense by rapists; 12.7% for violent reoffense by child molesters).  See also User Report No. 96-04.
What Do We Know About Sex Offender Risk Assessment?	Psychology, Public Policy and Law, Vol.4, No. 1, 50-72 1998	Good general article about basics of risk assessment
The Development of a Brief Actuarial Risk Scale for Sexual Offense Recidivism RRASOR	Department of the Solicitor General of Canada 1997	"Estimating a sexual offender's recidivism risk is important to many areas of the criminal justice system. The present study used data from seven different follow-up studies to develop a brief, actuarial risk scale, which was then replicated on an additional independent sample (total sample size of 2,592). The scale contains four items that are easily scored from administrative records: prior sexual offenses, age less than 25, extrafamilial victims and male victims. The scale showed moderate predictive accuracy (r = .27, ROC area = .71) with little variation between the development and replication samples. The predictive accuracy of the scale was sufficient to justify its use as a screening instrument in settings that require routine assessments of sexual offender recidivism risk."
Predictors of Sexual Offender Recidivism: A Meta-Analysis	Department of the Solicitor General of Canada 1996	Summarizes 61 studies involving 28,972 sexual offenders. Research basis for RRASOR and part of STATIC-99. Good data on base rates -- for the 61 samples studied, with an average 4-5 year follow-up period, the overall recidivism rate was 13.4% for sexual offenses, 12.2% for nonsexual violent offenses and 36.3% for any recidivism.
Long-Term Recidivism of Child Molesters	Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 61(4), 646-652 1993
Long-Term Follow-Up of Child Molesters	Department of the Solicitor General of Canada 1992	"The present study examined the long term recidivism rates of 197 child molesters released from prison between 1958 and 1974. Overall, 42 percent of the total sample was reconvicted for sexual and/or violent crimes, with 10 percent of the total sample being reconvicted between 10 and 31 years after being released. Incest offenders were reconvicted at a slower rate than homosexual pedophiles, with heterosexual pedophiles showing a rate intermediate between these two groups. Other factors associated with increased recidivism were 1) never being married and 2) prior sexual offenses. Although mental health and personality test (e.g., Eysenck, MMPI) scores improved with treatment, neither the pre- nor post-treatment scores were associated with recidivism. The recidivism rate for the treated child molesters was similar to the recidivism rate found for comparison groups of untreated child molesters."

Research on SDP Risk Assessment

Knight, R.A., and Thornton, D., “Evaluating and Improving Risk Assessment Schemes for Sexual Recidivism: A Long-Term Follow-up of Convicted sexual Offenders.” March 2007, United States Department of Justice (Unpublished; award No. 2003-WG-BX-1002) (Assessed comparative accuracy of major risk instruments over time and over subsamples; Explored potential for improved predictive instruments.)

Hanson, R.K., “The Accuracy of Recidivism Risk Assessments for Sexual Offenders: A Meta-Analysis” (2007) (Reliability of actuarial risk tools in predictions of sexual offense recidivism versus unreliability of unguided clinical opinion)

“Research Bulletin: Sex Offender Populations, Recidivism & Actuarial Assessment.” NY State Division of Probation and Correctional Alternatives (May 2007).

Campbell, T.W., “When Prophecy Fails: Retreating from Prediction,” Journal of Sex Offender Civil Commitment: Science and the Law, 2, 1-11(2007) (Doren’s position is inconsistent with ATSA, Hanson and other respected figures and with what he advocated in 1998)

Wollert, R., “Low Base Rates Limit Expert Certainty when Current Actuarials are Used to Identify Sexually Violent Predators,” Psychology, Public Policy and Law, vol. 12, 56-85 (2006) (Limits of actuarials, especially as applied to older offenders)

Barbaree, H.E., Langton, C.M., Peacock, E.J., “Different Actuarial Risk Measures Produce Different Risk Rankings for Sexual Offenders,” Sex Abuse, 18: 423-440 (2006)

Barnoski, R., “Sex Offender Sentencing in Washington State: Predicting Recidivism Based on Demographics and Criminal History.” (WA Institute for Public Policy) (Jan. 2006) (Static risk tool does not classify offenders according to recidivism risk; additional information is needed to identify which offenders are at high risk of reoffending)

Rogers, R., and Jackson, R.L., “Sexually Violent Predators: The Risky Enterprise of Risk Assessment,” J. Am. Acad. Psychiatry Law, 33:523-8 (2005) (Analysis of most commonly used actuarial methods of risk assessment and their usefulness in predicting sexual recidivism)

Seto, M., “Is More Better? Combining Actuarial Risk Scales to Predict Recidivism Among Adult Sex Offenders,” Psychological Assessment, vol. 17, no. 2, 156-167 (2005) (No combination method provided a statistically significant or consistent advantage over predictive accuracy of single best actuarial scale)

Woodworth, G., and Kadane, J.B., “Expert Testimony Supporting Post-Sentence Civil Incarceration of Violent Sexual Offenders,” Law, Probability and Risk, 3, 221-241 (2004) (Identifies problems with “scientific” risk assessment by experts)

Craig, L., Browne K., Stringer, I., and Beech, A., “Limitations in Actuarial Risk Assessment of Sexual Offenders: A Methodological Note,” The British Journal of Forensic Practice, Vol. 6, Issue 1 (Feb. 2004) (Summarizes methodological issues in measuring predictive accuracy in assessing risk of reoffending in sexual offenders and identifies from the literature both static and dynamic risk factors associated with sexual offense recidivism)

Mossman, D. "Another Look at Interpreting Risk Categories."  Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18, 41-43 (C 2006) ("Several studies over the past decade have shown that simple rating scales can accurately rank sex offenders’ long-term risk of recidivism. But when using these scales as prediction tools, evaluators often wish to translate categories of risk into probabilities of recidivism. Doren (2004) has recently suggested that evaluators may use the recidivism percentages published in original studies of the RRASOR and STATIC-99 without regard to differences in populations or base rates. This article explains why Doren’s computations should lead to a different conclusion, and describes how simply comparing percentages across studies can mislead researchers and clinicians. Instead, investigators should isolate and examine the detection properties of risk assessment instruments alone, independent of the population- or setting-specific base rate. This article explains this process, using an imaginary study to illustrate how base rates and the properties of risk assessment instruments yield estimated probabilities of recidivism. The article also shows why Doren’s results imply that the percentages of recidivism associated with scores on the RRASOR and STATIC-99 scores may vary across study populations.  The article offers recommendations for researchers who design and evaluate actuarial methods of assessing risk and for clinicians who interpret results from risk assessment instruments.")

Levenson, J. "Reliability of Sexually Violent Predator Civil Commitment Criteria in Florida."  Law and Human Behavior, Vol. 28, No. 4 ( 2004). ("The present study investigated the reliability of Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) civil commitment criteria under Florida’s Jimmy Ryce Act. The purpose of the study was to determine if, independently, 2 evaluators would reach the same conclusions about the same client (n = 295). According to civil commitment criteria outlined by the United States Supreme Court (Kansas v. Hendricks, 1997), SVPs must display a mental abnormality predisposing them to sexual violence and a likelihood of future sexual violence. The interrater reliability of 8 DSM-IV diagnoses applied by evaluators to determine whether a client has a “mental abnormality that predisposes him to sexual violence” was found to be poor to fair (kappa = .23 to .70). The interrater reliability of risk assessment instruments used to determine “likelihood of reoffense” was good (ICC = .77 to .85). The recommendations made by evaluators regarding whether or not to refer a client for civil commitment demonstrated poor reliability (kappa = .54). Implications for practice and policy are explored.")

Jackson R., Rogers R., Shuman W. "The Adequacy and Accuracy of Sexually Violent Predator Evaluations: Contextualized Risk Assessment in Clinical Practice."  International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 115-129 (2004).  ("Utilizing a mixed factorial design, forensic psychologists and graduate students were asked to make predictions about offenders’ likelihood of future sexual violence and their appropriateness for Sexually Violent Predator commitment. Forensic psychologists demonstrated adequate application of the relevant psycholegal standard, but made accurate predictions approximately one half of the time. Surprisingly, graduate students demonstrated a greater ability to discriminate between types of violent behavior (nonsexual versus sexual), but applied the relevant legal standard with less precision than forensic psychologists. Finally, the current results suggest that emotionally evocative information in the form of victim statements biased psychologists’ and students’ predictions of future sexual violence and resulted in students’ increased support for the offender’s involuntary commitment. Implications are discussed in terms of professional practice and admissibility of psychological testimony in Sexually Violent Predator commitment cases.")

Janus, E. & Prentky, R. "Forensic Use of Actuarial Risk Assessment: How a Developing Science Can Enhance Accuracy and Accountability."  Sex Offender Law report (Part I: August/September 2004; Part II: October/November 2004). (Compares the pros and cons of actuarial risk assessment with clinical risk assessment, describes their differences, and reviews methodological critiques of the actuarial approach.)

Doren, D. "Toward a Multidimensional Model for Sexual Recidivism Risk."  Journal of Interpersonal Violence, Vol. 19, No. 8, pp. 835-856 (August 2004). ( ". . . the most common patterns of offending seem to describe the same underlying etiological or risk dimensions [. . .]: (a) sexual deviance and (b) general criminality/willingness to be interpersonally violent.")

Freund, K. & Watson, R.  (1991).  "Assessment of the Sensitivity and Specificity of a Phallometric Test: An Update of Phallometric Diagnosis of Pedophilia." Psychological Assessment, 3, 254-260.

Freund, K. & Watson, R.  (1991).  "Assessment of the Sensitivity and Specificity of a Phallometric Test: An Update of Phallometric Diagnosis of Pedophilia." Psychological Assessment, 3, 254-260.

Janus, E.S., Prentky, R.A. "Forensic Use of Actuarial Risk Assessment with Sex Offenders: Accuracy, Admissibility, and Accountability." Criminal Law Review, 40, 1443-1499 (2003). (Actuarial risk assessment methods have proven equal to or superior to clinical judgment. However mental health professionals have the obligation to explain fully the limitations of actuarial assessment. Court should insist that clinical assessment be held to the same standard of reliability and validity by taking advantage of quantification of actuarial risk assessment to set enforceable and uniform standards for clinical risk assessments.)

Wollert, R. "The Value of Archiving Actuarial Data From Commitment Cases for Analyzing Validity, Expert Judgment, and Average Sexual Recidivism Risk." Unpublished manuscript (2003)b, available from the author. (Archival data regarding SVP commitment candidates, if it existed, would be useful for calculating a “lowest plausible recidivism boundary” for evaluating risk of reoffense. Such a criterion, incorporating standard errors of measurement and confidence intervals, would provide a better standard for legal decision makers than the non-cross-validated experience tables now used to estimate risk.)

Beech, Fisher & Thornton. "Risk Assessment of Sex Offenders." Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, Vol. 34, No. 4, 339–352 (2003).

Campbell, T.W. "Sex Offenders and Actuarial Risk Assessments: Ethical Considerations." 21 Behavioral Sciences and the Law 269-279 (2003). (Adjusting the results of actuarial assessments may result in assessments of very limited accuracy and may be inconsistent with the ethical standards and practice guidelines which obligate psychologists to acknowledge numerous limits related to their data and conclusions.)

Langton, C.M. "Contrasting Approaches to Risk Assessment with Adult Male Sexual Offenders: An Evaluation of Recidivism Prediction Schemes and the Utility of Supplementary Clinical Information for Enhancing Predictive Accuracy." Unpublished doctoral thesis, University of Toronto (2003). (Actuarial prediction schemes are not significantly more accurate in predicting recidivism outcomes than mechanically combined clinical ratings of psychological traits. Failure to complete treatment was a significant predictor for recidivism when actuarially determined risk was controlled. A significant interaction effect was found between ratings of response to treatment and PCL-R score.)

"The Tangled Web -- Complexities, Fallacies and Misconceptions Regarding the Decision to Release Treated Sexual Offenders from Civil Commitment to Society." 23 N. Ill. U. L. Rev. 195, Spring 2003.

Wollert, R. "An Analysis of Actuarial Tests for the Prediction of Sexual Recidivism." Unpublished manuscript (2002)b, available from the author. (Actuarial tests for the prediction of sexual recidivism are a group of psychological tests which purport to precisely establish risk of sex offense recidivism across a wide range of sexual offenders. Analysis of measurement errors inherent in predictive measurement, limitations of validity of such tests, undetected recidivism, and constraints on use of tests in forensic settings.)

Roberts, C.F., Doren, D.M., Thornton, D. "Dimensions Associated with Assessments of Sex Offender Recidivism Risk." 29 Criminal Justice and Behavior (No. 5) 569-589 (2002). (Study suggests that two independent dimensions (general criminality/antisocial violence and pedophilic deviance/sexual repetitiveness) underlie risk of sexual recidivism for previously convicted sex offenders.)

Berlin, F.S., Galbreath, N.W., Geary, B., McGlone, G., "The Use of Actuarials at Civil Commitment Hearings to Predict the Likelihood of Future Sexual Violence," in press, (2002). (It is questionable whether mental health professionals can make accurate predictions of future behavior; in general, mental health professionals are better at managing (i.e., reducing) risk, rather than trying to predict it. Actuarial measures can potentially be very misleading if one incorrectly attributes the overall risk of a previously screened group to a specific individual within it.)

Hart, S.D.  "Actuarial Risk Assessment: Commentary on Berlin et al."  in press (2002). (How, if at all, to use and interpret actuarial instruments for recidivism risk prediction. What the numbers mean.)

Doren, Dennis. "ADULT ACTUARIAL ASSESSMENT: Stability of Interpretative Risk Percentages for the RRASOR and the Static-99 Across Samples." ATSA Article (2002).

Doren & Thornton. "Factors that Modify Static Risk Assessments: Absolute vs. Proportionate Effects" ATSA Article (2002).

Rice, M.E., Harris, G.T., Quinsey, V.L. "The Appraisal of Violence Risk." 15 Current Opinions in Psychiatry (No. 6) 589-593 (2002). (Dynamic predictors may contribute little to the question of who is at greatest risk, but may be valuable in predicting when an individual at high risk is likely to offend.)

Loza, W., Villeneuve, D.B., Loza-Famous, A. "Predictive Validity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide: A Tool of Assessing Violent Offender’s Recidivism."  25 International Journal of Law and Psychiatry 85-92 (2002). (The VRAG did not significantly predict violent behavior during community release. When the base rate of behavior in a population to be evaluated is known or strongly suspected to be different from that of the development sample for a given instrument, use of the instrument may not be defensible.)

Sjostedt, G., Grann, M. "Risk Assessment: What is Being Predicted by Actuarial Prediction Instruments?" 1 International Journal of Forensic Mental Health (No. 2) 179-183 (2002). (Actuarial risk assessment worked better for prediction of imminent and less severe reoffending than for repeated and injurious sexual reoffenses, and were of no value for distinguishing intrafamilial recidivists from nonrecidivists.)

Wollert, R. "An Analysis of the Argument that Clinicians Under-Predict Sexual Violence in Civil Commitment Cases." 19 Behavioral Sciences and the Law 171-184 (2001). (Response to Doren’s paper "Recidivism Base Rates, Predictions of Sex Offender Recidivism, and the 'Sexual Predator' Commitment Laws." 16 Behavioral Sciences and the Law 97-114 (1998).

Freedman, D. "False Prediction of Future Dangerousness: Error Rates and Psychopathy Checklist – Revised."  29 Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and Law 89-95 (2001). (The high rate of false positive indications on the PCL-R suggest that is should not be used as a predictor of future violence in forensic settings where life and liberty are at stake.)

Hart, S.D. "Complexity, Uncertainty, and the Reconceptualization of Violence Risk Assessment."  Closing address to the annual meeting of the European Association of Psychology and Law in Lisbon, Portugal, June 8, 2001. (Actuarial risk assessment tests that purport to offer quantitative predictions of the probability of future violence (“absolute risk tests”) are scientifically implausible and are not useful for assessment for risk of future violence.)

Litwack, Thomas. "Actuarial versus Clinical Assessments of Dangerousness." Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 2001, Vol. 7, No. 2, 409–443 .  John Jay College of Criminal Justice and City University of New York. ("[A]lthough clinicians who engage in risk assessments certainly should be knowledgeable about arguably relevant actuarial assessment schemes and other assessment guides ..., it is premature, at best, to replace clinical risk assessments with actuarial assessments.")

Grisso, Thomas (2000). "Ethical Issues in Evaluations for Sex Offender Re-Offending."  Invited Address, Sinclair Seminars. ("[T]here are serious questions about [the] scientific readiness [of actuarial assessments] for use in [SDP proceedings].")

Sreenivasan, Shoba, et al (2000). "Actuarial Risk Assessment Models: A Review of Critical Issues Related to Violence and Sex-Offender Recidivism Assessments."  Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, Vol. 28. (Reliance on actuarials alone is inappropriate.)

Sreenivasan, S., Kirkish, P., Garrick, T., Weinberger, L., Phenix, A. "Actuarial Risk Assessment Models: A Review of Critical Issues Related to Violence and Sex Offender Recidivism Assessments." 28 Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and Law 438-448 (2000). (Risk appraisal should be based on guided clinical judgment by forensically trained clinicians. Utilization of a single model based on norm groups in tantamount to predicting that every individual is best described by a mean.)

Sjöstedt, G., & Långström, N. (2000, November).  Actuarial Assessment of risk for criminal recidivism among sex offenders released from Swedish Prisons 1993-1997. Presentation at the 19th Annual Research and Treatment Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, San Diego, CA.

Schwartz, Barbara & Cellini, Henry (1999).  "Sex Offender Recidivism and Risk Factors in the Involuntary Commitment Process." The Sex Offender: Vol. III Theoretical Advances, Treating Special Populations and Legal Developments (pp.8-1-8-22).  Kingston, NJ: Civic Research Institute.

Firestone, P., Bradford, J., McCoy, M., Greenberg, D., Larose, M., & Curry, S.  (1999).  "Prediction of Recidivism in Incest Offenders." Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 14(5), 511-531.

Doren, Dennis M.  (1998).  "Recidivism Base Rates, Predictions and Sex Offender Recidivism, and the 'Sexual Pedator' Commitment Laws." Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 16, 97-114.

Firestone, Philip, et al (1998). "Recidivism in Convicted Rapists."  Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, Vol. 26.  (Sexual recidivism rate for convicted rapists = 16%.)

Prentky, R.A., Knight, R.A., Lee, A.F.S. "Risk Factors Associated with Recidivism Among Extrafamilial Child Molesters." 65 Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology (No. 1) 141-149 (1997). (A composite of 10 variables associated with reoffense risk among child molesters had reasonable predictive accuracy in predicting sexual and nonsexual reoffense over 25 years.)

Witt, P.H., DelRusso, J., Oppenheim, J., Ferguson, G. "Sex Offender Risk Assessment and the Law." 24 Journal of Psychiatry and Law 343-377 (1996). (Historical and contextual survey of risk assessment and prediction.)

Quinsey, Vernon, Rice, Marnie, & Harris, Grant (1995).  "Actuarial Prediction of Sexual Recidivism." Journal of     Interpersonal Violence, 10(1), 85-105.

Prentky, R.A., Knight, R.A., Lee, A.F.S., Cerce, D.D. "Predictive Validity of Lifestyle Impulsivity for Rapists." 22 Criminal Justice and Behavior (No. 2) 106-128 (1995). (Lifestyle impulsivity is a significant typological discriminator for reoffense risk among rapists.)

	MnSOST-R	Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool - Revised
	SONAR	Sex Offender Need Assessment Rating
	STATIC-2002
	STATIC-99
	RRASOR	Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism
	J-SOAP	Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol
	PCL-R-2d	Psychopathy Check List -Revised
	SORAG	Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide
	PPG	Penile Plethysmograph
	SVR-20	Sexual Violence Risk
	VT	Viewing Time

See Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers position and standards concerning risk assessment.

MnSOST-R (Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool - Revised)

Epperson, D. L., Kaul, J. D., Huot, S. J., Hesselton, D., Alexander, W., & Goldman, R. (1999). Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R): Development, performance, and recommended risk level cut scores. http://www.psychology.iastate.edu/faculty/epperson/mnsost_download.htm.

Lloyd & Grove. "The Uselessness of the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST R) in Commitment Decisions." (in press) ("[T]he accuracy of the MnSOST-R offers at most trivial improvements on chance over a wide range of plausible recidivism rates.  Furthermore, unless an extraordinarily low cost is reckoned for false positive predictions of recidivism (leading to erroneous and unnecessary commitments), the MnSOST-R is more costly than simply betting the base rates and committing no one.")

Wollert, Richard. "The Importance of Cross-Validation in Actuarial Test Construction for Correcting Inflated Recidivism Predictions: Shrinkage in the Risk Estimates for the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool – Revised." Journal of Threat Assessment, Vol.2(1) 2002. (On cross validation, the original predictions of the MnSOST-R were found to be grossly inflated; they “shrank” by as much as 44 percentage points on cross-validation. A set of standards for the construction of actuarial tests for  predicting sexual recidivism would be helpful for test developers, test users and courts.)

Doren, D.M., Dow, E.A. "What 'Shrinkage' of the MnSOST-R? A Response to Wollert" (2002).

Wollert, R. "Additional Flaws in the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool - Revised: A Response To Doren and Dow." (2002), in press (2003). (Critique of Doren and Dow’s response to Wollert’s 2002 paper. Doren and Dow’s alternative to the original cross-validation was unacceptably flawed. Additional analyses cast doubt on the MnSOST-R’s validity coefficients and its relevance for identifying likely recidivists. A consensus is apparent that the MnSOST-R experience table for the developmental sample should not be used in civil commitment hearings. Guidelines for the development of actuarial tests were reviewed – it was noted that test developers could make a valuable contribution to the field by sharing data about their tests with other professionals when asked to do so.)

Barbaree, Seto & Peacock. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Six Risk Assessment Instruments for Adult Sex Offenders." Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 28, No.4 (8/2001) pp. 490-521. (VRAG, SORAG, RRASOR, & STATIC-99 do predict sexual recidivism; MnSOST-R & MASORR do not significantly predict sexual recidivism.)

SONAR (Sex Offender Need Assessment Rating)

Hanson, R.K., Harris, A. "A Method for Measuring Change in Risk Levels." (User Report No. 2000-01), Dept. of the Solicitor General of Canada (2000).

STATIC-2002

Hanson, R.K., Thornton, D. "Notes on the Development of Static-2002 (User Report No. 2003-01), Dept. of the Solicitor General of Canada (2003). (Paper describing the development of a new risk scale for sexual offenders, Static-2002. Like the Static-99, below, the Static-2002 is intended to be a widely applicable risk scale for the prediction of sexual recidivism, which can be coded using commonly available file information. This preliminary analysis suggests that Static-2002 shows promise, but further research is needed before it can be used in applied contexts. See also www.nicic.org/library/018624.)

STATIC-99

Hanson, R.K., “Does Static-99 Predict Recidivism Among Older Offenders?” Sex Abuse, 18:343-355 (2006). (Older offenders had lower sexual recidivism rates than would be expected based on their static-99 risk categories)

Hanson, R.K., Thornton, D. "Static-99: Improving Actuarial Risk Assessment for Sex Offenders." (User Report No. 1999-02), Dept. of the Solicitor General of Canada (1999).

Hanson, R.K., Bussière, M.T. "Predictors of Sexual Offender Recidivism: A Meta-Analysis." (User Report No. 1996-04), Dept. of the Solicitor General of Canada (1996). (Summarizes 61 studies involving 28,972 sexual offenders. Research basis for RRASOR and part of STATIC-99. Good data on base rates -- for the 61 samples studied, with an average 4-5 year follow-up period, the overall recidivism rate was 13.4% for sexual offenses, 12.2% for nonsexual violent offenses and 36.3% for any recidivism.)

Phenix, A., Hanson, R.K., Thornton, D. "Coding Rules for the Static-99" (2000) Dept. of the Solicitor General of Canada.

Harris, A.J.R., Phenix, A., Hanson, R.K., Thornton, D. "Static-99 Coding Rules, Revised 2003." Dept. of the Solicitor General of Canada.

Barbaree, Seto & Peacock. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Six Risk Assessment Instruments for Adult Sex Offenders." Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 28, No.4 (8/2001) pp. 490-521. (VRAG, SORAG, RRASOR, & STATIC-99 do predict sexual recidivism; MnSOST-R & MASORR do not significantly predict sexual recidivism.)

Scoring Guide.

Standard paragraphs for reports where the STATIC-99 is utilized.

Recidivism percentages.

Nunes, K.L., Firestone, P., Bradford, J.M., Greenberg, D.M., Broom, I. "A Comparison of Modified Versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide." 14 Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment (No. 3) 253-269 (2002). (Both the SORAG and the Static-99 achieved moderate predictive accuracy (as defined for this study). The instruments did not contribute uniquely to the prediction of sexual recidivism, suggesting that the instruments may provide redundant information.) 

Sjostedt, G., Langstrom, N. "Actuarial Assessment of Sex Offender Recidivism Risk: A Cross-Validation of the RRASOR and the Static-99 in Sweden." 25 Law and Human Behavior (No. 6) 629-645 (2001). (Cross-validation of the RRASOR and Static-99 in a retrospective followup (mean follow-up time 3.69 years) of all sex offenders released from Swedish prisons during 1993-1997 (n = 1,400 men).  RRASOR and Static-99 showed similar moderate predictive accuracy for sexual reconvictions. However their validity to actually predict sexual reconviction is still too low to recommend that either be used as a stand-alone device for risk assessment in clinical or legal practice.)
 
Firestone, P., Bradford, J. M., Greenberg, D., Nunes, K. L., & Broom, I.  "A comparison of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) and the Static-99."  Presentation at the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers Annual Convention, Lake Buena Vista, Florida. (October, 1999).

RRASOR (Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism)

Hanson, R.K. "The Development of a Brief Actuarial Risk Scale for Sex Offense Recidivism." (User Report No. 1997-04), Dept. of the Solicitor General of Canada (1997).

Hanson, R.K., Bussière, M.T. "Predictors of Sexual Offender Recidivism: A Meta-Analysis." (User Report No. 1996-04), Dept. of the Solicitor General of Canada (1996). (Summarizes 61 studies involving 28,972 sexual offenders. Research basis for RRASOR and part of STATIC-99. Good data on base rates -- for the 61 samples studied, with an average 4-5 year follow-up period, the overall recidivism rate was 13.4% for sexual offenses, 12.2% for nonsexual violent offenses and 36.3% for any recidivism.)

Barbaree, Seto & Peacock. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Six Risk Assessment Instruments for Adult Sex Offenders." Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 28, No.4 (8/2001) pp. 490-521. (VRAG, SORAG, RRASOR, & STATIC-99 do predict sexual recidivism; MnSOST-R & MASORR do not significantly predict sexual recidivism.)

Sjostedt, G., Langstrom, N. "Actuarial Assessment of Sex Offender Recidivism Risk: A Cross-Validation of the RRASOR and the Static-99 in Sweden." 25 Law and Human Behavior (No. 6) 629-645 (2001). (Cross-validation of the RRASOR and Static-99 in a retrospective followup (mean follow-up time 3.69 years) of all sex offenders released from Swedish prisons during 1993-1997 (n = 1,400 men).  RRASOR and Static-99 showed similar moderate predictive accuracy for sexual reconvictions. However their validity to actually predict sexual reconviction is still too low to recommend that either be used as a stand-alone device for risk assessment in clinical or legal practice.)

Hayes, A. K., Yates, P. M., Nicholaichuk, T., Gu, D., & Bolton, R. (2000, June).  "Sexual deviancy, risk and recidivism: The relationship between deviant arousal, the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offence Recidivism (RRASOR) and sexual recidivism."  Presentation at the Canadian Psychological Association Annual Convention, Ottawa.

J-SOAP (Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol)

A checklist whose purpose is to aid in the systematic review of risk factors that have been identified in the professional literature as associated with sexual and criminal offending. It is designed to be used with boys who are ages 12 through 18 years old. The J-SOAP may be used to assess the risk of sexual reoffending for nonadjudicated youth with a history of sexually coercive behavior as well as those who have been adjudicated for sexual offenses. Get copy.

PCL-R-2d (Psychopathy Check List -Revised)

Hare, R.D., Gretton, H., Catchpole, R.  "Psychopathy and Offending From Adolescence to Adulthood: A 10-Year Follow-Up."  Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. Vol. 72, No. 4, 636–645 (2004). ( "The risk for violence into early adulthood was greater among those with high PCL:YV scores than among those with low scores, even after controlling for conduct disorder, age at first offence, and history of violent and nonviolent offending. These results indicate that the PCL:YV provides meaningful information about young offenders’ risk for violence into early adulthood.")

Hare, R.D. "The Hare Psychopathy Checklist, Revised." Multi-Health Systems, Inc. (1991). Measure of psychopathy (psychopaths are manipulative, egocentric, impulsive individuals who  routinely violate social norms and who lack feelings of guilt or remorse). (NB. Psychopathy is NOT a diagnosis listed in the DSM-IV-TR or earlier editions of the DSM - see antisocial personality disorder.)

Hare, R.D. "The Hare Psychopathy Checklist, Revised, 2nd Edition, Technical Manual." Multi-Health Systems, Inc. (2003).

Hare, R.D. "The Hare Psychopathy Checklist, Revised, 2nd Edition, Rating Booklet." Multi-Health Systems, Inc. (2003). (The second edition of the PCL-R includes four new subscales and new research findings derived from factor analysis and item response theory. Also includes some descriptive and validation data for female offenders, substance abusers, sex offenders, African-American offenders, and forensic psychiatric patients.)

Gendreau, P., Goggin, C., Smith, P. "Is the PCL-R Really the “Unparalleled” Measure of Offender Risk?"  29 Criminal Justice and Behavior (No. 4) 397-426 (2002). (Review of studies of the effectiveness of the PCL-R as a risk assessment measure. Suggests that psychopathy may be more useful as a measure of responsivity in case management than for potential
recidivism.)

SORAG (Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide)

Quinsey, V.L., Harris, G.T., Rice, M.E., Cormier, C. "Violent Offenders, Appraising and Managing Risk." American Psychological Ass’n, Washington, D.C. (1998). (Purports to predict risk of future violent offense, NOT risk of future sexual offense, in sex offenders (SORAG).)

Quinsey, V.L., Rice, M.E., Harris, G.T. "Actuarial Prediction of Sexual Recidivism." 10 Journal of Interpersonal Violence (No. 1) 85-105 (1995).  Development of variables used in SORAG and of predictor scale.

Barbaree, Seto & Peacock. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Six Risk Assessment Instruments for Adult Sex Offenders." Criminal Justice and Behavior, Vol. 28, No.4 (8/2001) pp. 490-521. (VRAG, SORAG, RRASOR, & STATIC-99 do predict sexual recidivism; MnSOST-R & MASORR do not significantly predict sexual recidivism.)

Nunes, K.L., Firestone, P., Bradford, J.M., Greenberg, D.M., Broom, I. "A Comparison of Modified Versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide." 14 Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment (No. 3) 253-269 (2002). (Both the SORAG and the Static-99 achieved moderate predictive accuracy (as defined for this study). The instruments did not contribute uniquely to the prediction of sexual recidivism, suggesting that the instruments may provide redundant information.)

Firestone, P., Bradford, J. M., Greenberg, D., Nunes, K. L., & Broom, I.  "A comparison of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) and the Static-99."  Presentation at the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers Annual Convention, Lake Buena Vista, Florida. (October, 1999).

PPG (Penile Plethysmograph)

Simon, W.T., Schouten, P.G.W. "Plethysmography in the Assessment and Treament of Sexual Deviance: An Overview."  20 Archives of Sexual Behavior (No. 1) 75-91(1991). (Review of the theory and practice of penile plethysmography for diagnosis and prediction of sexual deviance and for monitoring of therapeutic change in the modification of sexual preferences.)

Laws and Gress. "Seeing things differently: The viewing time alternative to penile plethysmography."  Legal and Criminological Psychology, 9, 183-196 (2004).

Freund, K. & Watson, R. "Assessment of the Sensitivity and Specificity of a Phallometric Test: An Update of Phallometric Diagnosis of Pedophilia." Psychological Assessment, 3, 254-260 (1991).

SVR-20 (Sexual Violence Risk)

Boer, D., Hart, S.D., Kropp, P.R., Webster, W.D. "Manual for the Sexual Violence Risk–20." Mental Health, Law and Policy Institute, Simon Frazier University (1997). ( “The SVR-20 is an assessment method or procedure, rather than a test or scale. Although it is an attempt to systematize the assessment of individuals, it is not sufficiently structured or standardized to be a test and does not yield norm-referenced or criterion-referenced scores.” (p. 25).)

VT (Viewing Time)

Laws and Gress. "Seeing things differently: The viewing time alternative to penile plethysmography."  Legal and Criminological Psychology, 9, 183-196 (2004).
 
 
 

Recidivism

Nunes, K.L., Firestone, P., Wexler, A, Jensen, T., and Bradford, J.M., “Incarceration and Recidivism Among Sexual Offenders,” Law Human Behavior, 31:305-318 (2007). (Incarceration for index offenses was unrelated to sexual or violent recidivism – based on sample of 627 adult male sexual offenders)

Nunes, K.L., Hanson, R.K., Firestone, P., Moulden, H.M., Greenberg, D.M., and Bradford, J.M., “Denial Predicts Recidivism for Some Sexual Offenders,” Sex Abuse, 19:91-105 (2007). (Denial associated with increased sexual recidivism among low risk offenders and decreased recidivism among high-risk offenders; for incest offenders denial associated with increased sexual recidivism, but denial not associated with increased recidivism for offenses with unrelated victims)

Prentky, R.A., Janus, E., Barbaree, H., Schwartz, B.K., and Kafka, M., “Sexually Violent Predators in the Courtroom: Science on Trial,”  Psychology, Public Policy and  Law, vol. 12,  no. 4, 357-393 (2006). (Examination of determination of mental abnormality and current risk determinations; age and treatment as mitigating risk factors are considered)

Drake, E. and Barnoski, R., “Sex Offenders in Washington State: Key Findings and Trends.” (WA Institute for Public Policy) (March 2006) (Sex offenders recidivism rate for felony sex offenses – 2.7%; violent and sexual felony recidivism decreased since 1997)

Hanson, R.K., & Morton-Bourgon, K.E., “Characteristics of Persistent Sexual Offenders: A Meta-Analysis of Recidivism Studies,” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, vol. 73, no. 6, 1154-1163 (2005). (Meta-analysis of 82 recidivism studies identified deviant sexual preferences and antisocial orientation as major predictors of sexual recidivism for both adult and adolescent sexual offenders; Dynamic risk factors that have potential for being useful treatment targets are sexual preoccupations and general self-regulation. Many variables (e.g. psychological distress, denial of sex crime, victim empathy or stated motivation for treatment) had little or no relationship with sexual or violent recidivism.)

Barnoski, R., “Sex Offender Recidivism in Washington State: Measuring Recidivism,” (WA Institute for Public Policy) (August 2005). (70% of sex offenders who recidivated with any felony within 10 years did so within first 5 years)

Seto, M.C., & Eke, A.W., “The Criminal Histories and Later Offending of Child Pornography Offenders,” Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, vol. 17, No. 2, 201-210 (2005). (Child pornography offenders and risk of reoffending)

Hanson, R.K., Morton, K.E., and Harris, A.J., “Sexual Offender Recidivism Risk: What We Know and What We Need to Know,” Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci., 989:154-166 (2003). (Discussion of factors related to recidivism risk)

U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics: "Recidivism of Sex Offenders Released from Prison in 1994" (Sex offenders are less likely to be arrested after their release from prison than other criminals.)

U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics: "Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1994" (Interesting, and quite helpful, statistics on rearrest and reconviction rates.  E.g., within 3 years of release, 2.5% of rapists arrested for another rape, a significantly lower rate than for virtually all other offenses.)

"Is Sex Offending Behavior in Prison Indicative of Risk in the Community?" Colorado Dept. of Public Safety (July 2004). (Inmates who offend sexually while in prison are more likely to reoffend upon release.  But, persons incarcerated for felony sex offenses were the least likely to commit new crimes.)

Report from the Solicitor General of Canada: incarceration has little, if any, effect upon recidivism.

Hood, Shute, Feilzer & Wilcox. "Sex Offenders Emerging From Long-Term Imprisonment."  Brit, J. Criminol, (2002) 42, 371-394.

"Recidivism of Sex Offenders" Center for Sex Offender Management (May 2001).

Florida Department of Corrections, "Recidivism Report: Inmates Released from Florida Prisons" (2001). (Study of recidivism rates (recommitment to DOC for new substantive offense) of offenders released from Florida prisons since 1993. General recidivism rate was 48.6% after 72 months.)

Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Corrections. "Ten-Year Recidivism Follow-Up of 1989 Sex Offender Releases" (2001). (Ten year follow-up study of sex offenders released from Ohio prisons in 1989 (n = 879). Sex-related recidivism rate, including technical violations of supervision conditions, was 11.0%.)

Serin, R.C., Mailloux, D.L., Malcolm, P.B. "Psychopathy, Deviant Sexual Arousal, and Recidivism Among Sex Offenders." 16 Journal of Interpersonal Violence (No. 3) 234-246 (2001). (Rapists and child molesters who displayed more psychopathic characteristics and deviant sexual arousal recidivated sooner and at significantly higher rates.)

Adkins, G., Huff, D., Stageberg, P., Iowa Sex Offender Registry and Recidivism, Iowa Department of Human Rights (2000). (Two samples of sex offenders were followed for 4.3 years, one sample (n = 233) was required to register under the Iowa version of the Jacob Wetterling Act, the other (n = 201) would have been required to register had the Act been effect at the time. Only 3.2% of subjects were subsequently convicted of new sex offenses. No statistically significant difference in recidivism between the two samples was found.)

Greenberg, D.M. "Sexual Recidivism in Sex Offenders." 43 Canadian Journal of Psychiatry (No. 5) 459-465 (1998). (Summary of Meta-analyses. Recidivism base rates.)

Prentky, R.A., Lee, A.F.S., Knight, R.A., Cerce, D.D. "Recidivism Rates Among Child Molesters and Rapists: A Methodological Analysis."  21 Law and Human Behavior (No. 6) 635-659 (1997). (Examination of the critical methodological differences that underlie the high variability in sex offender recidivism rates. Type of criminal offense, operationalization of recidivism, and duration of follow-up period was found to have significant affects on recidivism estimates and to impact differently on rapists and child molesters.)

Simon. "The Myth of Sex Offender Specialization: An Empirical Analysis."  23 N.E. J. on Crim. & Civ. Con. 387 (Summer, 1997). ( "[no] evidence that child molesters (or sex offenders in general) have higher recidivism rates or are in fact more dangerous than other types of offenders ...")

Beck & Shipley (1989). "Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1983" (U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report) U.S. DOJ. (Overall recidivism rate for sex offenders is, on average, less than the rate for nonsexual criminals.)

Doren, Dennis M.  (1998).  "Recidivism Base Rates, Predictions and Sex Offender Recidivism, and the 'Sexual Pedator' Commitment Laws." Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 16, 97-114.

Thornton & Doren. "How Much Safer are Older Offenders?"  ATSA Article (2002).

Thornton & Doren. "Does Treatment Halve Recidivism for Higher Risk Sex Offenders?"  ATSA Article (2002).

Thornton & Doren. "Implications of Premature Treatment Termination for Sexual Recidivism"  ATSA Article (2002).

Schwartz, Barbara & Cellini, Henry (1999).  "Sex Offender Recidivism and Risk Factors in the Involuntary Commitment Process." The Sex Offender: Vol. III Theoretical Advances, Treating Special Populations and Legal Developments (pp.8-1-8-22).  Kingston, NJ: Civic Research Institute.
 
 
 

Age & Recidivism

The following studies have concluded that age accounts for a significant proportion of variance in arousal; sexual arousability is inversely related to age:

Prentky, R.A., and Lee, A., “Effect of Age-at-Release on Long Term Sexual Re-offense Rates in Civilly Committed Sexual Offenders,” Sex Abuse, 19:43-59 (March 2, 2007).

Hanson, R.K., “Does Static-99 Predict Recidivism Among Older Offenders?” Sex Abuse, 18:343-355 (2006). (Older offenders had lower sexual recidivism rates than would be expected based on their static-99 risk categories)

Doren, D.M., “What do We Know About the Effect of Aging on Recidivism Risk for Sexual Offenders?” Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, vol. 18, no. 2, 137-157 (2006). (Steady decline in recidivism rates as offenders age)

Hall (1992).  "Sexual arousal as a function of physiological and cognitive variables in a sexual offender population."  Archives of Sexual Behavior, 20, 359-369.

Kaemingk, Koselka, Becker, & Kaplan (1995). "Age and adolescent sexual offender arousal." Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 7, 249-257.

Blanchard, Klassen, Dickey, Kuban & Blak  (2001). "Sensitivity and specificity of the phallometric test for pedophilia in non-admitting sex offenders." Psychological Assessment, 13, 118-126.

Hanson, R.K. (2001).  "Age and sexual recidivism: A comparison of rapists and child molesters." Ottawa: Department of the Solicitor General of Canada.

Hanson, R.K. (2002). "Recidivism and Age."  Journal of Interpersonal Violence, Vol. 17, No. 10, pp. 1046-1062.

Barbaree , Blanchard & Langton (2002). "The development of sexual aggression through the lifespan: The effect of age on sexual arousal and recidivism." (Law and Mental Health Programs, Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto and the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health).

Barbaree, H.E., Blanchard, R., Langton, C.M., (2003). "Sexual Agression through the Lifespan", in press.

Fazel, S., Sjostedt, G., Langstrom, N., Grann, M. "Risk Factors for Criminal Recidivism in Older Sexual Offenders." (2006) Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment. ("Sexual offenders constitute a substantial proportion of the older male prison population. Recent research findings, with potential consequences for risk management, indicate that recidivism risk might be lower in older sexual offenders. We followed up all adult male sexual offenders released from prison in Sweden during 1993–1997 (N=1,303) for criminal reconviction for an average of 8.9 years. We studied rates of repeat offending (sexual and any violent) by four age bands (<25, 25–39, 40–54, and 55+years), and examined whether risk factors for recidivism remained stable across age groups. Results showed that recidivism rates decreased significantly in older age bands. In addition, the effect of certain risk factors varied by age band. These findings on recidivism rates in older sexual offenders concur with studies from the United Kingdom, United States, and Canada and may suggest some generalizability in Western settings. Further research is needed to address underlying mechanisms.")

Thornton, D. "Age and Sexual Recidivism: A Variable Connection."  (2006) Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment. ("Meta-analysis (R. K. Hanson & M. T. Bussi`ere, 1998) has indicated an overall negative correlation between age and sexual recidivism, but also found that the size of this inverse relationship varies significantly between samples. The present study examined the relationship between age on release and sexual recidivism in a large (N=752), nationally representative, sample of imprisoned male sexual offenders followed up for 10 years. Sexual offenders released at a younger age tended to be more general criminals while those released at an older age tended to be sexual specialists. Consistent with C. F. Roberts, D. M. Doren, and D. Thornton (2002), age on release was found to make a significant contribution to the prediction of sexual reconviction when two aspects of criminal history (sexual deviance and general criminality) were controlled. Overall, the odds of being sexually reconvicted declined by about 0.02 with each year of increasing age. In addition to this general decline in recidivism with increasing age, there was also a cubic effect of age for the offenders who had been sentenced for sexual offenses on at least two prior occasions. This group showed an exceptionally high sexual recidivism rate when released between the ages of 18–24 (80%). For those aged between 25 and 59 their sexual reconviction rate was consistently just under 50% regardless of age. Then for the small group aged 60+ no further sexual reconvictions were found.")

Treatment & Recidivism

Harkins, L., and Beech, A., “Measurement of the Effectiveness of Sexual Offender Treatment,” Aggression and Violent Behavior 12, 36-44 (2007). (Review of various methods of examining treatment effectiveness)

Marshall, W.L. & Marshall, L.E., “The Utility of the Random Controlled Trial for Evaluating Sex Offender Treatment: The Gold Standard or an Inappropriate Strategy?” Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, vol. 19, no. 2, 175-191 (2007)

Prentky, R., & Schwartz, B., “Treatment of Adult Sex Offenders,” VAWnet, a Project of the National Resource Center on Domestic Violence/Pennsylvania Coalition Against Domestic Violence (Dec. 2006).

“Understanding Treatment for Adults and Juveniles Who Have Committed Sex Offenses,” Center for Sex Offender Management, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice, (Nov. 2006).

Barnoski, R., “Sex Offe